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More on the Wagner incident in Russia
Jun. 25th, 2023 02:29 amWhile on the surface it's over, there's going to be lots going on for some time.
I vaguely heard about Russia wanting to get all its 'contractor' military units under the unified Russian command, i.e. absorb them into the regular army. This included Wagner. Which would essentially cause the organization to cease to exist. Bad news for them.
Several things are happening right now. First and foremost, Prighozin has called off the advance on Moscow, and is leaving Russia! He's going to Belarus, after having spent most of the day in talks with Lukashenko. Now, will he be safe there? Belarus has effectively been a transit point for most of the Russian military invading Ukraine. While I would expect Yevgeny to have a small armed guard, I don't think he's going to be allowed to keep a large armed guard. I believe he'll be vulnerable to assassination, especially in a country like Belarus. Whether he gets poisoned with a nerve agent or he throws himself out a high window, we shall see.
Prighozin's men have left Rostov, completely pulled out. I wonder if they absconded with any goodies from the military yards? Supposedly they were informed that Chechen fighters were coming to kick them out. Personally, I would have loved to have seen that fight. The Chechens are nasty, but honestly I don't know how good they are: as vaunted as they are, they suffered pretty high casualties in Ukraine. They're highly rated for committing atrocities on civilians, pretty much following Russian policy.
Russia also has some serious highway maintenance to do - they pulled out heavy earth-moving equipment and badly damaged the highway that lead to Moscow to make it harder for the Wagner forces to make their final push, which didn't happen.
Putin allegedly fled Moscow, according to tracking of the transponder on his private aircraft. Personally, I doubt he left, or if he did, that he left in that fashion. He also has seven armored and armed trains that he frequently uses to move around the country, they're almost indistinguishable from normal trains. He's been using those almost exclusively since the invasion began. I expect the plane was a decoy because he knows Wagner has aircraft and anti-air weapons. Putin was probably not far from his underground train platform, but I doubt he left Moscow, certainly not as early as his plane was reported leaving.
Wagner soldiers are being told that they can sign contracts with the Russian military. The big question, of course, is how many will do this. I doubt they're going to be too keen on fighting in the human wave style that the Russians have been practicing, and if they refuse to take orders, will it be the former Wagner soldiers shooting the Russian commanders - i.e. mutiny - or vice-versa?
There's also the issue of Wagner's operations in other countries. They have a large number of soldiers throughout Africa causing trouble on behalf of despots and despot-wannabees. Will this be a more or less formal declaration that Russia is involved in war in these countries? That's the convenient thing about mercenary armies, the Rodina can keep its hands apparently clean and say they are not involved. Well, things are going to get a bit more complicated. I think another likely scenario is some of the larger and better units just take their weapons, leave, and start up their own mercenary companies. Excuse me, Private Military Contractors.
Meanwhile, as I said previously, this is an excellent opportunity for the Ukrainian armed forces to press hard on the Russians and hopefully take back territory. They have just suffered both a loss of manpower and equipment with the Wagner forces leaving, and chaos/disruption with not only their leaving, but there will probably be a morale problem with some of those same forces coming back and being integrated into existing units.
IMO, if Prighozin stays in Belarus, he won't see the end of the year. One way or another he'll be dead. His best hope for survival is to get to an American embassy or military base and defect to the USA. And the Russians have apparently assassinated political enemies in the continental USA before, but I think that's his best odds.
Again, the regularly-updating BBC news feed on the situation:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142
I vaguely heard about Russia wanting to get all its 'contractor' military units under the unified Russian command, i.e. absorb them into the regular army. This included Wagner. Which would essentially cause the organization to cease to exist. Bad news for them.
Several things are happening right now. First and foremost, Prighozin has called off the advance on Moscow, and is leaving Russia! He's going to Belarus, after having spent most of the day in talks with Lukashenko. Now, will he be safe there? Belarus has effectively been a transit point for most of the Russian military invading Ukraine. While I would expect Yevgeny to have a small armed guard, I don't think he's going to be allowed to keep a large armed guard. I believe he'll be vulnerable to assassination, especially in a country like Belarus. Whether he gets poisoned with a nerve agent or he throws himself out a high window, we shall see.
Prighozin's men have left Rostov, completely pulled out. I wonder if they absconded with any goodies from the military yards? Supposedly they were informed that Chechen fighters were coming to kick them out. Personally, I would have loved to have seen that fight. The Chechens are nasty, but honestly I don't know how good they are: as vaunted as they are, they suffered pretty high casualties in Ukraine. They're highly rated for committing atrocities on civilians, pretty much following Russian policy.
Russia also has some serious highway maintenance to do - they pulled out heavy earth-moving equipment and badly damaged the highway that lead to Moscow to make it harder for the Wagner forces to make their final push, which didn't happen.
Putin allegedly fled Moscow, according to tracking of the transponder on his private aircraft. Personally, I doubt he left, or if he did, that he left in that fashion. He also has seven armored and armed trains that he frequently uses to move around the country, they're almost indistinguishable from normal trains. He's been using those almost exclusively since the invasion began. I expect the plane was a decoy because he knows Wagner has aircraft and anti-air weapons. Putin was probably not far from his underground train platform, but I doubt he left Moscow, certainly not as early as his plane was reported leaving.
Wagner soldiers are being told that they can sign contracts with the Russian military. The big question, of course, is how many will do this. I doubt they're going to be too keen on fighting in the human wave style that the Russians have been practicing, and if they refuse to take orders, will it be the former Wagner soldiers shooting the Russian commanders - i.e. mutiny - or vice-versa?
There's also the issue of Wagner's operations in other countries. They have a large number of soldiers throughout Africa causing trouble on behalf of despots and despot-wannabees. Will this be a more or less formal declaration that Russia is involved in war in these countries? That's the convenient thing about mercenary armies, the Rodina can keep its hands apparently clean and say they are not involved. Well, things are going to get a bit more complicated. I think another likely scenario is some of the larger and better units just take their weapons, leave, and start up their own mercenary companies. Excuse me, Private Military Contractors.
Meanwhile, as I said previously, this is an excellent opportunity for the Ukrainian armed forces to press hard on the Russians and hopefully take back territory. They have just suffered both a loss of manpower and equipment with the Wagner forces leaving, and chaos/disruption with not only their leaving, but there will probably be a morale problem with some of those same forces coming back and being integrated into existing units.
IMO, if Prighozin stays in Belarus, he won't see the end of the year. One way or another he'll be dead. His best hope for survival is to get to an American embassy or military base and defect to the USA. And the Russians have apparently assassinated political enemies in the continental USA before, but I think that's his best odds.
Again, the regularly-updating BBC news feed on the situation:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142
